东北虎豹国家公园畜禽受损的发生规律和优先防控区识别

Livestock depredation patterns and delineation of priority prevention zones in the Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park

  • 摘要: 自东北虎豹国家公园成立以来, 各类野生动物种群数量增长, 人与野生动物的冲突日益凸显。为缓解野生动物肇事, 以东北虎豹国家公园及其周边为研究区域, 结合实地调查与保险理赔数据, 总结畜禽受损发生规律及现有缓解措施;基于随机森林模型(Random Forest model, RF)预测畜禽受损的发生风险, 并结合风险区和承灾因子, 划定畜禽受损的优先防控区。结果表明:(1)2024年东北虎豹国家公园畜禽受损事件以牛受损为主(94起), 折合经济损失216.46万元;东北虎(Panthera tigris altaica)是主要肇事野生动物;肇事于4—6月高发, 高发区域为珲春片区。(2)调查到现有肇事缓解措施共14种, 可划分为物理防控、管理防控、监测预警、保险与补偿四类。(3)共识别高风险区和极高风险区1330.52 km2, 其中86.01%位于东北虎豹国家公园内, 集中分布在国家公园东南部和东北部。(4)共识别一级优先防控村19个, 二级优先防控村17个, 涉及吉林省的春化镇、哈达门乡、杨泡满族乡、马川子乡、英安镇、敬信镇和黑龙江省的大肚川镇、老黑山镇等8个乡镇。结果可为东北虎豹国家公园野生动物肇事管理提供科学依据, 并为其他保护地野生动物肇事研究提供理论参考。

     

    Abstract: Since the establishment of the Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park, populations of various wildlife species have steadily recovered and their activity ranges have continued to expand, bringing human-wildlife conflicts to the forefront. To reduce losses caused by wildlife accidents, this study focused on the park and its adjacent areas. Using field data from semi-structured interviews and questionnaire surveys, along with insurance claim records, the spatial and temporal patterns of livestock depredation were systematically examined, and the effectiveness of existing prevention measures was assessed. A random forest model was adopted to predict livestock depredation risk, and priority prevention zones were delineated based on environmental risk factors. The main findings are as follows: (1) In 2024, livestock depredation in the park mainly involved cattle. A total of 94 incidents were recorded, resulting in direct economic losses of 2.1646 million yuan, which accounted for 89.86% of the total estimable amount. The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) was the primary predator, with livestock depredations affecting cattle, horses, sheep, domesticated deer, and pigs. Depredation peaked between April and June, with the Hunchun area identified as the core hotspot. (2) A total of 14 prevention measures were identified and classified into four categories: physical control, management-based control, monitoring and early warning, and insurance and compensation. (3) High-risk and extremely-high-risk zones covered a total area of 1, 330.52 km2, of which 86.01% fell within the park boundaries, accounting for 8.12% of the park′s total area. These risk zones exhibited strong spatial clustering, with concentrations in the southeastern and northeastern parts of the park. (4) 19 first-priority villages and 17 second-priority villages were identified, belonging to eight townships: Chunhua Town, Hadamen Township, Yangpao Manchu Ethnic Township, Machuanzi Township, Ying′an Town, and Jingxin Town in Jilin Province, and Daduchuan Town and Laoheishan Town in Heilongjiang Province. These findings provide a scientific basis for managing wildlife accidents in the Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park and offer theoretical insights for similar research in other protected areas worldwide.

     

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