Abstract:
Since the establishment of the Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park, populations of various wildlife species have steadily recovered and their activity ranges have continued to expand, bringing human-wildlife conflicts to the forefront. To reduce losses caused by wildlife accidents, this study focused on the park and its adjacent areas. Using field data from semi-structured interviews and questionnaire surveys, along with insurance claim records, the spatial and temporal patterns of livestock depredation were systematically examined, and the effectiveness of existing prevention measures was assessed. A random forest model was adopted to predict livestock depredation risk, and priority prevention zones were delineated based on environmental risk factors. The main findings are as follows: (1) In 2024, livestock depredation in the park mainly involved cattle. A total of 94 incidents were recorded, resulting in direct economic losses of 2.1646 million yuan, which accounted for 89.86% of the total estimable amount. The Amur tiger (
Panthera tigris altaica) was the primary predator, with livestock depredations affecting cattle, horses, sheep, domesticated deer, and pigs. Depredation peaked between April and June, with the Hunchun area identified as the core hotspot. (2) A total of 14 prevention measures were identified and classified into four categories: physical control, management-based control, monitoring and early warning, and insurance and compensation. (3) High-risk and extremely-high-risk zones covered a total area of 1, 330.52 km
2, of which 86.01% fell within the park boundaries, accounting for 8.12% of the park′s total area. These risk zones exhibited strong spatial clustering, with concentrations in the southeastern and northeastern parts of the park. (4) 19 first-priority villages and 17 second-priority villages were identified, belonging to eight townships: Chunhua Town, Hadamen Township, Yangpao Manchu Ethnic Township, Machuanzi Township, Ying′an Town, and Jingxin Town in Jilin Province, and Daduchuan Town and Laoheishan Town in Heilongjiang Province. These findings provide a scientific basis for managing wildlife accidents in the Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park and offer theoretical insights for similar research in other protected areas worldwide.