气候变化下武夷山国家公园江西片区藏酋猴适生区预测

Prediction of Tibetan macaque (Macaca thibetana) suitable habitats in the Jiangxi section of Wuyishan National Park under climate change

  • 摘要: 物种分布格局是野生动物对环境变化和人为干扰长期响应的综合体现, 对其适生区空间分布的认识是理解物种生存与适应机制及制定保护策略的基础。藏酋猴(Macaca thibetana)作为中国东南山地森林生态系统的重要灵长类物种, 其栖息地分布特征对理解物种分布格局及其对环境变化的响应具有重要意义。本研究聚焦武夷山国家公园江西片区, 基于Biomod2模型结合37个藏酋猴分布位点和31个环境变量, 系统评估了其当前及未来(2041—2060、2061—2080年)三种气候情景(SSP126、SSP370和SSP585)下的潜在适生区分布。结果显示, 相较于单一模型, Biomod2集成模型表现出更高的预测精度, 其受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)和真实技巧统计值(TSS)分别为0.94和0.84。重要性分析表明, 影响藏酋猴分布的关键环境因子依次为等温性、增强型植被指数、距道路的距离、叶面积指数、林龄、植被覆盖度、距居民点的距离和坡向。当前武夷山国家公园江西片区藏酋猴的适宜生境面积约为105.1 km2, 其面积占江西片区总面积的37.67%, 在未来多种气候情景下, 藏酋猴的适宜栖息地将出现一定程度的增加, 并伴随着空间格局的变化。研究结果为藏酋猴及其他灵长类动物的保护和管理提供科学依据和新视角。

     

    Abstract: The distribution pattern of species refers to a comprehensive reflection of the long-term response of wild animals to environmental changes and human activities. Comprehending the spatial distribution of their suitable habitats plays a vital role in showing species survival mechanisms and formulating conservation strategies. The Tibetan macaque (Macaca thibetana) is a vital primate species in the mountain forest ecosystem of southeastern China. Besides, its habitat distribution characteristics are of great significance for understanding the species distribution pattern and its response to environmental changes. This study utilized the Biomod2 model in combination with 37 Tibetan macaque distribution sites and 31 environmental variables to conduct research in the Jiangxi Section of Wuyishan National Park. The system systematically assessed the distribution of potential suitable habitats under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) in the present and future (2041—2060, 2061—2080). The results demonstrated that the Biomod2 ensemble model revealed higher prediction accuracy relative to the single model. Its area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) were shown to be 0.94 and 0.84, respectively. According to importance analysis, the vital environmental factors impacting the distribution of Tibetan macaques were, in descending order: isothermality, enhanced vegetation index, distance to roads, leaf area index, forest age, fractional vegetation cover, distance to residences, and aspect. At present, the suitable habitat area for Tibetan macaques in the Jiangxi Section of Wuyishan National Park is approximately 105.1 km2, occupying 37.67% of the total area of the Jiangxi Section. Under a variety of future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat for Tibetan macaques will increase to some extent, accompanied by changes in spatial patterns. Moreover, the research findings offer a scientific foundation and novel perspective for protecting and managing Tibetan macaques and other primates.

     

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