Abstract: Michelia shiluensis (Chun et Y. F. Wu) is an endangered plant species endemic to Hainan Island. To clarify its current resource status and assess its survival prospects in the context of future climate change, this study analyzed its population structure, key environmental influencing factors, and potential future distribution. A systematic field survey across the island recorded a total of 258 specimens of M. shiluensis. The study conducted a comprehensive analysis of its population structure, including age, diameter class, tree height, and crown width. Correlation analysis was employed to explore the impact of climatic factors and associated tree species diversity on its distribution. Additionally, the Random Forest model was used to simulate dynamic changes insuitable habitats under two future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The results showed that the wild resources of M. shiluensis were extremely scarce and highly concentrated, with 89.15% clustered in the Diaoluo Mountain. The population age structure was predominantly composed of young and middle-aged trees (classes Ⅲ and Ⅳ), indicating a developing population characteristic. However, the number of seedlings was severely lacking, comprising only 0.78% of the total population. Its diameter class, tree height, and underbranch height structures followed an inverse "J" shape, suggesting a certain natural regeneration capability in the Diaoluo Mountain area. The distribution pattern at various elevations indicated that the mid-to-high altitude range of 900—1000 m was the most suitable habitat for M. shiluensis. As elevation increased, the average breast height diameter and the diversity index of associated tree species increased. Although associated tree species were not the primary limiting factor, the insufficient self-renewal capacity of the population was the fundamental reason for the species′ endangered status. There was a negative correlation between annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and the population structure of M. shiluensis, illustrating that the cool environment at the mid-to-high altitudes of 900—1000 m in the main distribution area of Diaoluo Mountain is more conducive to the growth and stability of M. shiluensis. Future climate predictions indicate that by 2041—2070, the suitable habitat area for M. shiluensis is expected to decrease by 26%—33%, posing a severe threat to its existing major habitats. This study confirms that the regeneration potential of M. shiluensis population is closely related to its current climatic niche, yet future climate changes present significant challenges to its survival. In terms of protection strategies, priority should be given to the mid-to-high altitude regions of Diaoluo Mountain. Emphasis should be placed on enhancing the protection of seedlings to promote natural population regeneration. Additionally, artificial tending methods should be employed to improve seedling survival rates, thereby enhancing the species′ adaptability to future climate changes.