国家公园背景下青藏高原野牦牛适生区分布及其影响因素
Distribution and influencing factors of suitable habitats for wild yaks on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau within the context of national parks
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摘要: 野牦牛(Bos mutus)是青藏高原特有的旗舰物种, 其栖息地保护对于维持高寒生态系统完整性与生物多样性至关重要。旨在国家公园建设背景下, 精确评估青藏高原野牦牛的潜在适生区空间分布格局, 并深入揭示自然环境和人类活动对其分布的影响机制。研究综合运用最大熵(MaxEnt)物种分布模型与GIS空间分析技术, 基于291个野牦牛分布点位数据、关键环境变量(包括温度、降水、积雪天数等)以及高分辨率人类活动强度指数, 模拟了野牦牛的栖息地适宜性。结果表明, MaxEnt模型预测精度优秀(AUC=0.904), 年均积雪天数是决定适生区分布的主导环境因子(贡献率46.4%), 其次为降水季节性和最湿季度降水量。空间上, 野牦牛的高度适生区(面积约22.95万km2)主要集中分布于阿尔金山、藏北高原、喀喇昆仑山东南缘及冈底斯山西北缘等人类干扰较少的偏远高寒区域。通过构建协调度评价模型, 研究发现人类活动与野牦牛适生区之间存在显著的空间分异:高度协调区(占研究区21%)广布于高原西北部(如羌塘高原), 而不协调区(占44%)则密集分布于高原东北部、东部及南部边缘, 与放牧、基础设施建设等人类活动热点高度重合, 揭示了人类活动是驱动人兽冲突的核心因素。研究证实, 青藏高原野牦牛核心适生区与国家公园群空间布局高度耦合, 印证了其规划的科学性。基于适生区与人类活动协调度评价, 提出国家公园精准管理建议:在规划中, 应依据协调度优化边界与功能区划, 将高度协调区纳入核心保护区;在管理中, 需在不协调区重点建设生态廊道、调整基础设施并推动社区共管以缓解人兽冲突。研究成果可为构建以国家公园为主体的野牦牛栖息地保护网络提供科学依据。Abstract: As a flagship species endemic to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the habitat protection of the wild yak (Bos mutus) is crucial for maintaining the integrity of alpine ecosystems and biodiversity. This study focuses on the spatial pattern of potential suitable habitats for wild yaks in the context of national park development, and systematically reveals the influence mechanisms of natural and anthropogenic factors on their distribution. The research integrates the MaxEnt species distribution model with GIS spatial analysis technology, and utilized 291 occurrence data points, key environmental variables (temperature, precipitation, snow cover days, etc.), and high-resolution human activity intensity data to simulate the habitat suitability for wild yaks. The results show that the MaxEnt model has excellent prediction accuracy (AUC=0.904). The average annual snow cover days (Scd) are the primary environmental factor influencing the distribution of suitable habitats (contribution rate of 46.4%), followed by precipitation seasonality (bio15) and precipitation in the wettest quarter (bio16). The evaluation of coordination degree reveals significant spatial divergence between human activities and suitable habitats for wild yaks: highly coordinated areas (accounting for 21%) are widely distributed in the northwest of the plateau (such as the Qiangtang Plateau), while uncoordinated areas (44%) are densely located at the northeastern, eastern, and southern edges of the plateau, markedly overlapping with hotspots of human activities such as grazing and infrastructure development. This suggests that human activities are key driving factors leading to human-wildlife conflicts. This study further confirms that the core suitable habitats for wild yaks align closely with the layout of national parks, validating the scientific nature of their planning. Based on the assessment of coordination, precise management recommendations for national parks are proposed. At the planning level, protection boundaries and functional zoning should be optimized based on the coordination degree, and highly coordinated areas should be included into the core protection zones. In management practice, efforts should focus on constructing ecological corridors in uncoordinated areas, reasonably regulating the layout of infrastructure, and actively promoting community co-management mechanisms to effectively alleviate human-animal conflicts. The findings provide scientific support for the construction of a habitat protection network for wild yaks with national parks as the main body.
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