武夷山国家公园网络关注度和旅游吸引力耦合协调关系及驱动因素

Coupling coordination relationship and driving factors of online attention and tourism attractiveness in Wuyishan National Park

  • 摘要: 理解公众对自然保护地的网络关注度与旅游吸引力的关系对推进保护地高质量发展具有重要意义。以武夷山国家公园为研究对象, 整合31个省(自治区、直辖市)2022—2024年的多平台网络搜索指数及经济社会数据, 综合运用全局熵值法、修正引力模型、耦合协调度模型和机器学习(XGBoost+SHAP)方法, 探究公众网络关注度与旅游吸引力指数的耦合协调时空特征与驱动因素。结果表明:(1)网络关注度与旅游吸引力指数均呈现显著的空间分异, 前者以福建省与江西省为核心向外围梯度递减, 后者则凸显长三角、珠三角等发达地区的客源优势;(2)基于旅游吸引力指数的耦合协调度与基于实际旅游人数的耦合协调度演变趋势高度一致(81%省份位序差≤3), 验证了宏观吸引力指标在省级尺度评估耦合协调关系的有效性;(3)全国耦合协调度整体偏低, 仅福建省(良好协调)连续3年处于协调状态, 其余省份均存在不同程度失调(轻度失调至极度失调), 3年间多数省份耦合协调度保持稳定, 部分省份(如陕西、重庆、河南)在2023年“乙类乙管”政策实施后出现短期波动;(4)空间距离(负向)和国内生产总值(GDP)总量(正向)是影响网络关注度和旅游吸引力耦合协调关系的最主要因子, 而电信业务总量也具有稳定的正向作用。研究结果有助于深化国家公园旅游系统中的“认知-行为”空间关系的理解, 并为武夷山国家公园高质量生态保护与旅游发展提供参考。

     

    Abstract: The understanding of the relationship between online attention and tourism attractiveness in protected areas is crucial for promoting their high-quality development. With Wuyishan National Park as the research object, this study integrates multi-platform online search indices and socio-economic data from 31 provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities) from 2022 to 2024. By employing a comprehensive approach that includes the global entropy method, a modified gravity model, the coupling coordination degree model, and machine learning techniques (XGBoost+SHAP), it explores the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of the coupling coordination between public online attention and the tourism attractiveness index. The findings indicate: (1) Both online attention and the tourism attractiveness index exhibit significant spatial differentiation. The former shows a core-periphery gradient decreasing outward from Fujian and Jiangxi provinces, while the latter highlights the tourism source advantages of developed regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. (2) The evolution trends of the coupling coordination degree based on the tourism attractiveness index align closely with those based on actual tourist numbers (81% of provinces have a rank difference of ≤3), confirming the validity of using macro attractiveness indicators to assess coupling coordination relationships at the provincial level. (3) The national coupling coordination degree is generally low, with only Fujian Province maintaining a state of good coordination for three consecutive years. Other provinces experience varying degrees of imbalance, ranging from slight to extreme. Over the three years, most provinces have stable coupling coordination degrees, although some, such as Shaanxi, Chongqing, and Henan, exhibited short-term fluctuations following the implementation of the "Class B, Category B" management policy in 2023. (4) Spatial distance (negative impact) and total GDP (positive impact) are the primary factors affecting the coupling coordination between online attention and tourism attractiveness, with the total volume of telecom services also exerting a consistent positive influence. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the "cognition-behavior" spatial relationship within national park tourism systems and provide valuable insights for the high-quality ecological protection and tourism development of Wuyishan National Park.

     

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