卡拉麦里国家公园野放普氏野马种群现状及生境适宜性评价

Current status and habitat suitability evaluation of the reintroduced Przewalski′s horse population in Kalamaili National Park

  • 摘要: 普氏野马(Equus ferus przewalskii)是珍稀濒危动物, 也是我国最早实现野化放归的物种之一。为了解野放普氏野马的种群现状和适宜生境分布, 于2023—2024年采用样线调查获取野放普氏野马的信息, 利用距离样线法和最大熵模型(MaxEnt), 分析其种群密度、数量及分布状况, 并对其生境适宜性进行评价。结果表明:(1)野放普氏野马种群密度为0.0937匹/km, 主要分布在国家公园西部的水源地、草地和沙地等区域, 种群数量为(345±82.518)匹, 群体平均大小为(7.77±1.52)匹, 从种群成幼比来看, 近2023—2024年普氏野马种群结构基本稳定。(2)影响普氏野马生境适宜性的主要环境因子为距水源地距离(31.2%)、最暖月最高温度(24.8%)、最湿季的降水量(20.2%)、距国道距离(12.8%)和海拔(6.8%), 其累计贡献率达到95.8%, 其余3个环境变量对模型的贡献率相对较小, 分别为距铁路距离(2.4%)、最暖季的降水量(1.7%)和植被类型(0.1%)。研究数据表明, 在干旱区生境评估中, 水源可获得性具有决定性作用。(3)普氏野马高适宜生境面积为1700.96 km2, 占研究区域的11.57%;中适宜生境面积为2058.21 km2, 占研究区域总面积的14%;低适宜生境面积为10825.61 km2, 研究区域总面积的73.65%。当前, 野放普氏野马种群规模较小, 其活动范围相对有限, 且对环境因子的变化表现出较高的敏感性。基于生境适宜性评价结果, 应重点保护现存的核心栖息地, 同时, 在干旱季节可适度增设人工水源补给点, 以缓解现有栖息地的环境压力。

     

    Abstract: Przewalski′s Horse (Equus ferus przewalskii), a rare and endangered species, is one of the first species in China to be successfully reintroduced into the wild. To explore the current status and suitable habitat distribution characteristics of the reintroduced Przewalski′s horse population, this study collected relevant data from 2023 to 2024 using the line transect method. By combining the distance sampling method with the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt), a systematic evaluation was conducted on population density, size, spatial distribution patterns, and habitat suitability. The results indicated that: (1) The population density of the reintroduced Przewalski′s horses was 0.0937 individuals/km2, primarily concentrated in water sources, grasslands, and sandy areas in the western part of the national park. The estimated population size was 345±82.518 individuals, with an average group size of 7.77±1.52 individuals. Based on the analysis of the population′s age structure, the Przewalski′s horse population remained relatively stable between 2023 and 2024. (2) The habitat suitability analysis showed that key environmental factors affecting habitat suitability included distance from water sources (31.2%), maximum temperature of the warmest month (24.8%), precipitation of the wettest season (20.2%), distance from national highways (12.8%), and elevation (6.8%), with a cumulative contribution rate of 95.8%. The contribution rates of other variables are as follows: distance to the railway (2.4%), precipitation of the warmest season (1.7%), and vegetation type (0.1%). These results demonstrated that water availability has a decisive influence on habitat evaluation in arid regions. (3) Regarding habitat suitability, the area classified as highly suitable is 1700.96 km2 (11.57% of the study area), moderately suitable is 2058.21 km2 (14%), and low suitability is 10825.61 km2 (73.65%). The current population of the reintroduced Przewalski′s horses is limited, and their range is relatively concentrated and sensitive to changes in environmental factors. Based on the evaluation results, it is recommended to focus on strengthening the protection of existing core habitats and consider adding artificial water sources during dry seasons to alleviate environmental stress on habitats.

     

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