Current status and habitat suitability evaluation of the reintroduced Przewalski′s horse population in Kalamaili National Park
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Abstract
Przewalski′s Horse (Equus ferus przewalskii), a rare and endangered species, is one of the first species in China to be successfully reintroduced into the wild. To explore the current status and suitable habitat distribution characteristics of the reintroduced Przewalski′s horse population, this study collected relevant data from 2023 to 2024 using the line transect method. By combining the distance sampling method with the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt), a systematic evaluation was conducted on population density, size, spatial distribution patterns, and habitat suitability. The results indicated that: (1) The population density of the reintroduced Przewalski′s horses was 0.0937 individuals/km2, primarily concentrated in water sources, grasslands, and sandy areas in the western part of the national park. The estimated population size was 345±82.518 individuals, with an average group size of 7.77±1.52 individuals. Based on the analysis of the population′s age structure, the Przewalski′s horse population remained relatively stable between 2023 and 2024. (2) The habitat suitability analysis showed that key environmental factors affecting habitat suitability included distance from water sources (31.2%), maximum temperature of the warmest month (24.8%), precipitation of the wettest season (20.2%), distance from national highways (12.8%), and elevation (6.8%), with a cumulative contribution rate of 95.8%. The contribution rates of other variables are as follows: distance to the railway (2.4%), precipitation of the warmest season (1.7%), and vegetation type (0.1%). These results demonstrated that water availability has a decisive influence on habitat evaluation in arid regions. (3) Regarding habitat suitability, the area classified as highly suitable is 1700.96 km2 (11.57% of the study area), moderately suitable is 2058.21 km2 (14%), and low suitability is 10825.61 km2 (73.65%). The current population of the reintroduced Przewalski′s horses is limited, and their range is relatively concentrated and sensitive to changes in environmental factors. Based on the evaluation results, it is recommended to focus on strengthening the protection of existing core habitats and consider adding artificial water sources during dry seasons to alleviate environmental stress on habitats.
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